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Weekly analysis EUR/JPY

The beauty of technical analysis - when it works and when you can sincerely take advantage of it - lies in its catalogue of patterns. Bearish, bullish, sideways patterns, there

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قديم 28-02-2012, 06:51 PM   #1
Forex Trading 2012
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تاريخ التسجيل: 12 - 12 - 2011
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افتراضي Weekly analysis EUR/JPY

The beauty of technical analysis - when it works and when you can sincerely take advantage of it - lies in its
catalogue of patterns. Bearish, bullish, sideways patterns, there is an armada of patterns out there supposed to help
the market technicians to spot what will be the next move (who said anticipate?). When I say "supposed", I don't mean "guaranteed" ... unfortunately.

Following this long introductive epitaph about technical analysis patterns, let's see what EURJPY price is telling us using the armada of patterns technicians discovered last decades. Well, price is trapped from 2009 inside a wedge pattern. "Trapped" is may be not the right word to use here, as EURJPY's price has been driven by all market participants, but let's stop the philosophical point of view and let's try to predict next move on EURJPY based on this pattern. It is worth mentioning about which pattern we are talking about. A bullish one? A bearish one? A sideways one?

The answer is a falling wedge! A wedge pattern warns that price will reverse - in this particular case a very longterm alarm that started back in 2009 and still counting as we are waiting for the alarm to ... ring. Next move on EURJPY should visit the 107/110 region, with 105.60 being the first obstacle. However, current Dow Theory cycle is bearish - represented by the H and L on the above chart. The short-term cycle remains bearish and as long as price (a) stay in the downside red channel (b) does not break current Dow Theory cycle, EURJPY shall score new lows later in 2012. This falling wedge will act positively on this pair later on, but for now we need a break of Dow Theory pivot (111.60) to change team - from bears to bulls.

In other words, even though we favor a rally as high as 107/110 region, EURJPY's downtrend should then resume.

See the chart on our blog
forex-analysisblog.com
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Weekly analysis EURLJPY

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